Gartner ForecastsWorldwide5G Network Infrastructure Revenueto Grow39% in 2021
By End of 2024, 60% of CSPs Will Commercialise 5G Service Covering Tier-1 Cities
Dubai, UAE., August4, 2021 — Worldwide 5G network infrastructure revenue ison pace to grow39% to total $19.1 billionin 2021, up from $13.7 billion in 2020, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc.
Communications service providers (CSPs) in mature markets accelerated 5G development in 2020 and 2021 with 5G representing 39% of total wireless infrastructure revenue this year.“The COVID-19 pandemic spiked demand for optimised and ultrafast broadband connectivity to support work-from-home and bandwidth-hungry applications, such as streaming video, online gaming and social media applications,” said Michael Porowski, senior principal research analyst at Gartner.
5G is the fastest growing segment in the wireless network infrastructure market (see Table 1). Of the segments that comprise wireless infrastructure in this forecast, the only significant opportunity for investment growth is in 5G. Investment in legacy wireless generations is rapidly deteriorating across all regions and spending on non-5G small cells is poised to decline as CSPs move to 5G small cells.
|Segment||2020 Revenue||2021 Revenue||2022 Revenue|
|LTE and 4G||17,127.8||14,569.1||12,114.0|
|3G and 2G||3,159.6||1,948.2||1,095.2|
|Small Cells Non-5G||6,588.5||7,117.9||7,113.9|
Source: Gartner (August 2021)
Regionally, CSPs in North America are set to grow5G revenue from $2.9 billion in 2020 to $4.3 billion in 2021, due, in part, to increased adoption of dynamic spectrum sharing and millimetre wave base stations. In Western Europe, CSPs will prioritise on licensing spectrum, modernising mobile core infrastructure and navigating regulatory processes with 5G revenue expected to increase from $794 million in 2020 to $1.6 billion in 2021. Greater China is expected to maintainthe No.1 global position in global 5G revenuereaching $9.1 billion in 2021, up from $7.4 billion in 2020.
5G Coverage in Tier-1 Cities Will Reach 60% in 2024
While 10% of CSPs in 2020 provided commercialisable 5G services, which could achieve multiregional availability, Gartner predicts that this number will increase to 60% by 2024, which is a similar rate of adoption for LTE and 4G in the past.
“Business and customer demand is an influencing factor in this growth. Asconsumers return to the office, they will continue to upgrade or switch to gigabit fibre to the home (FTTH) service as connectivity has become an essential remote work service,” said Porowski.“Users will also increasingly scrutinize CSPs for both office and remote work needs.”
This rapid shift in customer behaviour is driving growth in the global passive optical network (PON) market as a preferred technology. The 10-Gigabit-capable symmetric-PON (XGS-PON) is not a new technology and with the price difference with other technologies narrowing, CSPs are willing to invest in XGS-PON to differentiate themselves in customer experience and network quality. Gartner estimates that by 2025, 60% of Tier-1 CSPs will adopt XGS-PON technology at large-scale to deliver ultrafast broadband services to residential and business users, up from less than 30% in 2020.
Gartner clients can learn more in the reports “Forecast Analysis: Communications Service Provider Operational Technology, Worldwide” and “Forecast: Communications Service Provider Operational Technology, Worldwide, 2019-2025, 2Q21 Update.”
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