The crypto market has experienced a rebound for two consecutive weeks. The price of BTC has risen from $54,000 to the current level of $68,000. The market’s fear index has also increased from around 26 at the beginning of the month to the current level of 74. This rapid increase is mainly due to the market fully pricing in two events:
1. The potential approval of the ETH ETF early this week, with an expected inflow of $5 billion;
2. U.S. Republican presidential candidate Trump attending the BTC conference and delivering a keynote speech, with a small probability that BTC could become the “reserve asset” of the U.S., potentially bringing in hundreds of billions of dollars in the future.
Indicators to watch to determine if the market will continue momentum:
1. Contract fee rates: Monitor if contract fee rates become excessively high. If the funding rate for long positions on mainstream assets exceeds 60%, assess the possibility of a reversal;
2. Options skew: Watch the skew of BTC call and put options. If call options are significantly more expensive than put options, it generally indicates excessive market FOMO.
Sectors with potential layout opportunities:
1. Solana Meme coins: The price of SOL has seen a significant rebound this round, rising directly from $120 to $180, a nearly 50% increase in two weeks. Solana Meme has even become a news item in the U.S. election. Any changes in the election could create new memes and trading opportunities.
2. POW (Proof of Work) sector: Trump’s attendance at the BTC conference is effectively courting the American mining community. Favorable policies are also likely to benefit miners, ensuring the price trends of related assets.
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